Will Raila And Kibaki Work Together This Time Around?

By Dennis Onyango

When the two leaders had poured soil onto the coffin of former Minister Jeremiah Nyagah during the burial on Friday, President Kibaki took a handkerchief, wiped his hands, and passed it on to the Prime Minister Raila Odinga, who cleaned his hands with it, and returned it to the President.

But many did not take note. But one MP with a long career in the public service did, and remarked that it was “a kind gesture that looked deliberate”.

President Kibaki and Prime minister Raila Odinga. Coming together five years after falling out, the two leaders have to work at susutaining the coalition. Picture: file
“Kibaki did not have to pass the handkerchief to Raila. He had the option of just giving it back to his aides and letting the PM look for his. That’s what you do when you do not care about or like someone,” the MP said.

Raila is known as one who puts his mind, heart and energy on anything he picks to pursue. Often, he will take risks that many politicians dare not try and he will put his career on the line by fighting for a friend.

Kibaki on the other hand keeps what is in his mind close to his chest, is reputed never to start a battle and will never fight for anyone.

Kibaki is also reputed to be calculating and averse to taking risks in life. Taking these different roots, the two have once again found themselves in the same government, after fighting a bitter campaign in which each sought to bring the other down.

The last time the two politicians came together in 2002, they handed Kanu its first defeat in 39 years.

Raila and Kibaki may have destroyed Kanu forever. They went ahead to excite the nation with the possibilities of a united Kenya governed by coalition politics, a new constitution and an end to corruption.

That was before they progressively began to fall out as soon as they took over power in 2003, then parting ways in 2005, until the disputed elections last year forced them back together.

Few thought the National Rainbow Coalition that brought Kibaki and Raila to power in 2003 would fall apart. It was so good everyone wanted it to stay.

This year, about six years after the two first came together, there is the excitement that the reunion may unite Kenya again and unlock the country’s potential.

But the question lingers: will Raila and Kibaki work together this time all the way to 2012 – the year of the next General Election?

Better understanding

Both sides of this divide appear to have learnt from the past and the chaos of recent months. At least associates of the President and the Prime Minister believe the tribulations that bedevilled Narc and led to its collapse are out of the way this time. They believe the two leaders understand each other better now and circumstances have changed. They also believe the Grand Coalition, whose success or failure depends largely on the two, will survive.

The falling out between Raila and Kibaki began with complaints that the President had failed to honour a Memorandum of Understanding signed before the 2002 General Election. The accusations over the dishonoured MoU later ran hand in hand with protests that the President’s gatekeepers were blocking the Lang’ata MP and others from seeing him.

It developed into a battle that crystallised into what Energy Minister Kiraitu Murungi, likes to christen as one of 3Cs – the coalition, constitution and corruption.

The war over what shape the coalition should take, gave way to the shape of the then expected new constitution. When the sun sets on the battle for the constitution, another began on who, between the President’s wing of the Government and Raila’s was responsible for corruption.

Outside the President’s cycles then, the stumbling blocks to peace in Narc were summarised as a group of people from Mt Kenya region, who were baptised as the Five Ms.

They included Head of Public Service and Secretary to the Cabinet Mr Francis Muthaura, then Finance Minister Mr David Mwiraria, then Internal Security Minister Dr Chris Murungaru, then Comptroller of State House Mr Matere Keriri and then the Minister for Justice and Constitutional Affairs Mr Kiraitu Murungi.

Some of those who were close to President Kibaki in his first administration today admit that they did block Raila and others from seeing the President. But they say they were not malicious. They also believe a lot has changed and the Kibaki-Raila alliance will work, but a lot will depend on the principals themselves.

“Yes Raila was blocked from seeing the President. But it was for a good reason. In 2003, the President was not in a good condition,” said an associate of the President.

The problem, according to the source, was that during most of 2003, the President was in bad health, sometimes worse than the public imagined.

“Some people wanted to take advantage of this. Yet some of us believed the President would recover and run this country and time has proved us right,” the source said.

“In 2003, Kibaki was barely active and did some things by proxy. It was not about the rivalry between the Five Ms and Raila. It was about the President’s health.”

Another ally of the President in his first term also agreed that Raila’s problems with Kibaki began when the two of them could not sit down and talk largely because of the President’s poor health then.

But he blames his colleagues some of whom he says kept blocking people from the President even when he had improved.

“Raila was not fought by Kibaki. He was fought by Kibaki’s dogs,” the source said.

“In 2003 all the way to early 2004, Kibaki was not himself,” he added.

Strong ties

According to this source, who worked closely with Kibaki in his first administration, things would have worked differently between Kibaki and Raila had the President been well.

He reached this conclusion based on what he says the President knew about of his (Kibaki’s) ties to the Odinga family.

“Kibaki knows even today that it was Raila’s father who fished him out of Makerere and brought him to run Kanu. People talk about the incompatibility of Raila and Kibaki yet at one time, the British labelled Kibaki, Odinga and Julius Nyerere as communists. They were close.”

Still, the source said, in Kenya’s “politics of survival”, politicians focus on themselves and their future and do not always show gratitude for the past. But he believes Kibaki and Raila can get along well.

“In the first year of his administration, Kibaki was in bad health and people were being kept away. Some people later decided to keep it that way. Instead of changing to reflect the President’s improving health, they shut him out some more. It did not help things. I believe things will work out differently this time,” the former associate said.

Certain developments in Kibaki’s operations have raised hopes that this time, he will be available and in charge.

The President has decided to conduct most of the serious business from Harambee House, not State House, as was the case in his first administration.

Running the Government from State House, according to sources, gets tricky because the family is also there and friends come to visit. That, one source said, interferes with work.

To see the President even at OP, guests, including ministers, will still need to check with the Comptroller and Head of the Civil Service, who manages the President’s diary. But the hope is that it would be a more formal process than trying to see him in State House.

It is not clear how long the President will be running State affairs from OP. Sources say circumstances forced him to operate from Harambee House.

Bad image

Since the crisis began in January, he has been handling a large number of visitors daily, the media were on him and he was not going to allow them to pry into State House daily. The President also needed a place he could work quietly.

The shift to OP, sources say, is also a testimony to the fact that the President’s health has improved.

“Kibaki could not have gone to OP in a wheel chair in 2003, with cameras capturing him struggling to get out of the car. That would have been a bad image,” an associate says.

He adds: “The President was in pain most of 2003. The right leg was fractured below the knee, the right arm was broken and there were other injuries. Today he is well and there will be no need to protect or shield him.”

But there is also the feeling that with the Prime Minister tasked with supervising and co-ordinating government functions there would be little urge to see the President. Below him are also a younger Vice-President and two deputy Prime Ministers.

Still, across the divide, there is a feeling that the fate of the union depends equally on what the Prime Minister has learnt about Kibaki, particularly in terms of how he operates.

Associates of the President admit that he is a difficult person to work with. He hardly gives answers when people go to him with issues and hardly makes his position known.

But Kibaki also hates being addressed in public, especially through rallies and the media. People lose his trust when they make public what he had discussed with them in confidence.

The President, on the one hand, is serving his last term. Going by confessions of those who have known him, he is unlikely to endorse anyone and campaign for him or her.

Raila, on the other hand, will remain behind as arguably the most senior politician with the best chance for capturing the presidency, or whatever the highest office will be after Kibaki.

“The role he has been assigned gives him a profile for future leadership. It all depends on how he handles it,” a politician said.

Even within ODM, there are those who want the PM to play a complementary role to the President and help him leave a good legacy.

That, they argue, will make Raila look more like a statesman and a team player.

They also advise that the PM adopts “a softer approach to Kibaki”.

Greatest task

“Kibaki is highly unlikely to show his hand on who he prefers. It is unlike him. His age, the fact that he is in his last term and his demeanour shows that he is unlikely to interfere. It will depend on how Raila handles him,” a source said.

Sources in both PNU and ODM say the PM’s greatest task, apart from implementing the national agenda as spelt out in the accord, would be how to handle the President privately and in public, in a way that he is seen to be working with and for him.

“Kibaki is a very private person. He does not take kindly even to an innocent remark like “today I met Kibaki”, if that meeting was secret. To succeed with Kibaki, Raila will need to employ a quiet approach to the man,” a source said.

The President, his associates say, also get along well with people who go to him with solutions, not problems.

“Don’t go to Kibaki with a problem. Go to him with a solution or your proposal on a problem,” an ally said.

Lifted From The Stantard